Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Static multipole polarizabilities of S atoms or ions using the Frozen-Core approximation

Static multipole polarizabilities of S atoms or ions have been calculated by two equivalent variational methods. Our results are in harmony with an earlier work which used the uncoupled Hartree-Fock approximation.Les polarisabilités statiques multipolaires d'atomes ou d'ions S sont calculées suivant deux méthodes variationnelles équivalentes. Les résultats sont en accord avec un travail précédent utilisant l'approximation d'Hartree-Fock découplée

Frequency dependent multipole polarizabilities of atomic systems

A variational calculation for frequency dependent multipole polarizabilities of atomic systems is proposed ; for zero frequency it reduces to our previous formalism of the static case. This present scheme has been applied to obtain the dispersion energy between interacting hydrogen and helium pairs. Our results are in harmony with others.On calcule les dépendances en fréquence des polarisabilités multipolaires de systemes atomiques en utilisant une méthode variationnelle qui rejoint, à fréquence nulle, le formalisme du cas statique. Ce développement a été appliqué au calcul de l'énergie de dispersion entre paires d'hydrogène et d'helium

Telomeric features of Theileria parva mitochondrial DNA derived from cycle sequence data of total genomic DNA

We have previously reported on characterisation of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of Theileria parva (1), an intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle (reviewed in (2). The mtDNA encodes ORFs for apocytochrome b and polypeptides I and III and cytochrome oxidase, contains fragmented rRNA genes and exists as a 7.1 kbp linear DNA molecule. The mtDNA was only amenable to cloning following brief treatment with Bal31 exonuclease and partial sequence data indicated the presence of terminal inverted repeat (TIR), sequences which could have made the intact molecule refractory to cloning (1). The limited protein coding capacity, rRNA gene fragmentation and TIR sequences of the parasite mtDNA is similar to that described for the 15.8 kbp linear mtDNA of Chlamydomanas reinhardtii, a unicellular green algae (3). In an attempt to complete the sequence analysis of the ends of the parasite mtDNA we have taken advantage of cycle sequencing. Rather than using purified mtDNA as template, we reasoned that since the T. parva genome is only about 10 (7) bp (4,5), and parasite mtDNA is present in multiple copies (1), we should be able to employ cycle sequence analysis of total genomic DNA to obtain mtDNA sequences. This method has been described for obtaining nucleotide sequence from a cloning vector in a single bacterial colony or bacteriophage plaque (6). Total genomic DNA was isolated from bovine red blood cells infected with the piroplasm stage of T. parva (7) and an aliquot of the DNA was digested to completion with HindIII. This restriction enzyme cleaves the mtDNA once (1) and was used to reduce the viscosity of the DNA solution. The digested DNA was exracted with phenol and chloroform, precipitated with absloute cold ethanol, rinsed with 70 percent ethanol (8) and then suspended in water at a concentration of 1 mg/ml. A 5 mu-gamma sample of the genomic DNA was subjected to cycle sequencing using the fmol DNA sequencing ssystem (Promega), following the manufacturer's instructions. Briefly, 10 pmol of 33P labelled primer was used with Taq DNa polymerase, template and dNTP/ddNTP mixes in the standard buffer. The microtitre plate was placed in a programmable thermal cycler preheated to 95 degree centi-grade and the cycle sequencing program started. Cycling profile conditions consisted of denaturation for 1 min at 95 degree centi-grade followed by 30 cycles of 30 s at 94 degree centi-grade, 30 s at 55 degree centi-grade and 1 min at 72 degree centi-grade. After adding stop buffer the sequencing reactions were denatured at 78 degree centi-grade for 2 min and electrophoresed on a 6 degree centi-grade polyacrylamide, 7 M urea gel at 50 W (8)

Dispersion interaction between the hydrogen atom and hydrogen like ions

The two-body dispersion interactions between the multipole of the hydrogen atom and the multipole of the hydrogen like ions and between multipoles of two hydrogen like ions have been worked out. The frequency dependent multipole polarizabilities have been worked out by the variational analog to the differential equation obtained from the hydrodynamic model analogy to quantum mechanics. Also, the [2, 1] Pade' approximants are used to construct the frequency dependent multipole polarizabilities from the multipole Cauchy's coefficients. The dispersion energy coefficients which appear in the expressions for the interaction energies of the H-He +, H-Li++, He+-He +, Li++-Li++ and He+-Li++ systems have been obtained up to the term R-10.Nous présentons le calcul des interactions de dispersion à deux corps entre les multipôles de l'atome et l'ion hydrogène d'une part, et entre ceux des ions hydrogène d'autre part. Les polarisabilités dynamiques des multipôles sont déduites à l'aide de l'analogue variationnel de l'équation différentielle permettant de passer d'un modèle hydrodynamique à un modèle quantique. Les approximants de Padé sont également utilises pour déterminer cette polarisabilité dynamique à partir des coefficients de Cauchy du multipôle. Les coefficients de l'énergie de dispersion qui apparaissent dans le calcul des énergies d'interactions des systèmes H-He+, H-Li++, He+-He +, Li++-Li++ et He+-Li++ sont obtenus jusqu'au terme R-10